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Successional, second-growth forests dominate much of eastern North America; thus, patterns of biomass accumulation in standing trees and downed wood are of great interest for forest management and carbon accounting. The timing and magnitude of biomass accumulation in later stages of forest development are not fully understood. We applied a “chronosequence with resampling” approach to characterize live and dead biomass accumulation in 16 northern hardwood stands in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Live aboveground biomass increased rapidly and leveled off at about 350 Mg/ha by 145 years. Downed wood biomass fluctuated between 10 and 35 Mg/ha depending on disturbances. The species composition of downed wood varied predictably with overstory succession, and total mass of downed wood increased with stand age and the concomitant production of larger material. Fine woody debris peaked at 30–50 years during the self-thinning of early successional species, notably pin cherry. Our data support a model of northern hardwood forest development wherein live tree biomass accumulates asymptotically and begins to level off at ∼140–150 years. Still, 145-year-old second-growth stands differed from old-growth forests in their live ( p = 0.09) and downed tree diameter distributions ( p = 0.06). These patterns of forest biomass accumulation would be difficult to detect without a time series of repeated measurements of stands of different ages.

 

Statistical confidence in estimates of timber volume, carbon storage, and other forest attributes depends, in part, on the uncertainty in field measurements. Surprisingly, measurement uncertainty is rarely reported, even though national forest inventories routinely repeat field measurements for quality assurance. We compared measurements made by field crews and quality assurance crews in the Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the U.S. Forest Service, using data from 2790 plots and 51 740 trees and saplings across the 24 states of the Northern Region. We characterized uncertainty in 12 national core tree-level variables; seven tree crown variables used in forest health monitoring; three variables describing seedlings; and 11 variables describing the site, such as elevation, slope, and distance from a road. Discrepancies in measurement were generally small but were higher for some variables requiring judgment, such as tree class, decay class, and cause of mortality. When scaled up to states, forest types, or the region, uncertainties in basal area, timber volume, and aboveground biomass were negligible. Understanding all sources of uncertainty is important to designing forest monitoring systems, managing the conduct of the inventory, and assessing the uncertainty of forest attributes required for making regional and national forest policy decisions. 

Tree planting is increasingly being adopted as a strategy to address global change, including mitigation, adaptation, and restoration. Although reforestation has long been central to forest management, the desired outcomes of traditional and emerging tree-planting strategies face barriers linked to a lack of ecological diversity in forest nurseries. In the present article, we outline how insufficient diversity in nursery seedlings among species, genotypes, and stock types has impeded and will continue to hinder the implementation of diverse ecological or climate-suitable planting targets, now and into the future. To support this, we demonstrate disparities in seedling diversity among nursery inventories, focusing on the northern United States. To overcome these challenges, we recommend avenues for improving policy and financing, informational resources and training, and research and monitoring. Absent these advances, current seedling production and practices will fall short of ambitious tree-planting goals proposed for forest restoration and global change mitigation and adaptation.

 

Anticipating the next generation of forests requires understanding of recruitment responses to habitat change. Tree distribution and abundance depend not only on climate, but also on habitat variables, such as soils and drainage, and on competition beneath a shaded canopy. Recent analyses show that North American tree species are migrating in response to climate change, which is exposing each population to novel climate-habitat interactions (CHI). Because CHI have not been estimated for either adult trees or regeneration (recruits per year per adult basal area), we cannot evaluate migration potential into the future. Using the Masting Inference and Forecasting (MASTIF) network of tree fecundity and new continent-wide observations of tree recruitment, we quantify impacts for redistribution across life stages from adults to fecundity to recruitment. We jointly modeled response of adult abundance and recruitment rate to climate/habitat conditions, combined with fecundity sensitivity, to evaluate if shifting CHI explain community reorganization. To compare climate effects with tree fecundity, which is estimated from trees and thus is "conditional" on tree presence, we demonstrate how to quantify this conditional status for regeneration. We found that fecundity was regulated by temperature to a greater degree than other stages, yet exhibited limited responses to moisture deficit. Recruitment rate expressed strong sensitivities to CHI, more like adults than fecundity, but still with substantial differences. Communities reorganized from adults to fecundity, but there was a re-coalescence of groups as seedling recruitment partially reverted to community structure similar to that of adults. Results provide the first estimates of continent-wide community sensitivity and their implications for reorganization across three life-history stages under climate change. 

Species distribution models predict shifts in forest habitat in response to warming temperatures associated with climate change, yet tree migration rates lag climate change, leading to misalignment of current species assemblages with future climate conditions. Forest adaptation strategies have been proposed to deliberately adjust species composition by planting climate‐suitable species. Practical evaluations of adaptation plantings are limited, especially in the context of ecological memory or extreme climate events.

In this study, we examined the 3‐year survival and growth response of future climate‐adapted seedling transplants within operational‐scale silvicultural trials across temperate forests in the northeastern US. Nine species were selected for evaluation based on projected future importance under climate change and potential functional redundancy with species currently found in these ecosystems. We investigated how adaptation planting type (‘population enrichment’ vs. ‘assisted range expansion’) and local site conditions reinforce interference interactions with existing vegetation at filtering adaptation strategies focused on transitioning forest composition.

Our results show the performance of seedling transplants is based on species (e.g. functional attributes and size), the strength of local competition (e.g. ecological memory) and adaptation planting type, a proxy for source distance. These findings were consistent across regional forests but modified by site‐specific conditions such as browse pressure and extreme climate events, namely drought and spring frost events.

Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight that managing forests for shifts in future composition represents a promising adaptation strategy for incorporating new species and functional traits into contemporary forests. Yet, important barriers remain for the establishment of future climate‐adapted forests that will most likely require management intervention. Nonetheless, the broader applicability of our findings demonstrates the potential for adaptation plantings to serve as strategic source nodes for the establishment of future climate‐adapted species across functionally connected landscapes.